@shawmakesmagic initiated a discussion about the timeline for robotic job replac...
ement, asking followers whether they think robots capable of replacing humans at virtually every current job would take 5 years or 5000 years, suggesting most people's estimates would fall "somewhere between, but closer to 5 than 500 or 5000." In follow-up tweets, they clarified they meant current jobs, not future ones, and asked about the timeline for replacing "every single job humans do now...like even the best violinist in the world, or the best athlete." @shawmakesmagic predicted "40-50 years to true undeniable superior in every obvious way AGI" but noted that "Some things we take for granted will be surprisingly hard, Moravec's Paradox." They also observed that while new jobs will emerge, they will be "increasingly abstract" with "huge exponential effects on attention, expertise, etc." In a separate tweet, they noted that "many robotics companies are building highly dexterous humanoid robots."
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